7 NFL Stars That Will See a Decline in Production Next Season
By Brian Cass
The NFL is the most unpredictable of all the major sports. One year, we're crowning someone as the next Tom Brady. And the next, said player falls back down to Earth and shows his true colors. It happens every season, so there's no reason to expect it'll be any different this year as well. Here are seven NFL stars who are in line for a downtick in production.
1. Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees was lighting the NFL on fire last season, well, at least for the first three quarters of the year. After Week 13, Brees averaged just 215 passing yards per game with a 6.3 YPA and he only managed to throw 3 touchdowns. He was able to rebound in the postseason to an extent, but he didn't display the same dominance that he had throughout the season to help his team get there. He's now 40, and entering his 19th year in the NFL. Brees' 2019 season may be more in line with his end-of-year production from 2018.
2. Antonio Brown
AB's attitude this offseason has been controversial to say the least, and that could lead to problems in Oakland. The Raiders, don't have the same talent surrounding him as Pittsburgh provided him with. Derek Carr isn't a bad quarterback, but he also isn't necessarily a good one. He and Brown will have to work to develop a strong rapport early on, but AB may have his work cut out for him this season, as he will be the main focal point for opposing defenses, and won't have a receiver like JuJu Smith-Schuster playing alongside him to command respect from opposing defenders.
3. Adrian Peterson
Most fans and football analysts had already written off the All-Pro RB as a washed up shell of his former self before last season. But, he ended up surprising everyone with 1,042 rushing yards, good for eighth most in the league. With last year's second-round pick Derrius Guice set to make a comeback after tearing his ACL last offseason, Peterson's touches will go down drastically. AP is an old school runner, he likes playing behind a full back and hitting the hole fast. That type of offense doesn't really work in the NFL anymore, and Guice is much better suited to play in Jay Gruden's scheme. We more than likely saw the last strong season from Peterson last year.
4. Jared Goff
Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff is coming off the best year of his young career in 2018, culminating in a Super Bowl appearance. But as we all remember, he did little to nothing on the big stage, and his team only mustered up three points in the loss to the Patriots. Without a fully healthy Todd Gurley behind him, Goff struggled to carry the offense and make plays when he needed to. This season, teams will surely use that game film to plan against Goff and his offense. If teams can exploit Goff's weaknesses, he could be in for a long season under center in LA, especially if Gurley is dealing with lingering knee injuries.
5. Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz is coming off a record-breaking year from the tight end position, besting Jason Witten's record for receptions by a tight end in a single season. It'll be damn near impossible for Ertz to duplicate that kind of output two years in a row, even if his Carson Wentz is fully healthy this time around. The emergence of second-year TE Dallas Geodert will also take some targets away from Ertz. Geodert's production and playing time started to increase as the season went on last year, so don't be surprised when he slashes into Ertz's target share. The Birds offense is loaded with talent at the other skill positions too, so Ertz won't need to be relied upon as much as he was in 2018. He's still one of the best tight ends in the league, but it'd be surprising if he could string together the level of production we saw from him in 2018.
6. Kyle Fuller
Kyle Fuller had a break out year for the Chicago Bears last season, ending the season tied for the league lead with 7 interceptions, and earning himself First Team All-Pro honors. But, with DC Vic Fangio now in Denver, the Bears defense as a whole may take a step back in 2019. Fuller clearly benefited from Fangio's scheme, so he's a at risk of coming back down to earth this season. In the years prior to 2018, Fuller only totaled 8 total interceptions in his first three years in the NFL. Last season was the outlier, so don't be surprised if Fuller trends back towards median this year.
7. Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper burst onto the scene once he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys midway through last season, helping Dak Prescott and America's Team win the NFC East title. Before getting traded, Cooper caught just 22 passes for 280 yards and 1 touchdown through six games with the Oakland Raiders. Some will chalk that up to the Raiders just being a dumpster fire last season, but we can't forget that Cooper was trending downwards before the start of last season as well. In 2017, Cooper had the worst year of his career, catching 48 passes for 680 yards and seven touchdowns. While he clearly settled in nicely with his new team, he may not be able to reproduce the impressive numbers from last year. We'll have to see how it plays out in his second year with the team.