Astros Are Only Team That Could've Truly Unlocked Zack Wheeler Breakout
By Mark Powell
Some narratives just make too much sense to happen.
The Houston Astros, the same franchise which revived the careers of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, had the chance to turn Zack Wheeler into their next pet project, both at the deadline, and again this offseason.
Instead, Wheeler took his talents to Philadelphia on a five-year, $118 million deal.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a five-year deal worth more than $100 million, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 4, 2019
Wheeler is a classic overpay in this sense, especially for the Phillies, who earlier Wednesday lost out on a Cole Hamels return, watching the lefty spurn them for a one-year prove-it deal with their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves.
In a way, it's a shame. Think what you will about the Astros after the revelation of a multiple seasons-long sign-stealing scandal, but their pitcher development program is hands down the best in baseball.
Verlander was coming off several subpar seasons prior to his turnaround into the 2019 Cy Young Award winner. Cole, who was arguably robbed of that award by his teammate, hadn't lived up to his potential in Pittsburgh before Houston took off the training wheels. Ditto on the oft-injured Morton, who turned around his career in Houston and has now emerged as the Rays' ace. The list goes on.
Gerrit Cole, in a text message to MLB(dot)com on Verlander winning the Cy Young: "Justin Verlander is a stud. It was a pleasure to run along side him this summer. Congratulations!"
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) November 14, 2019
The Astros were in on Wheeler at the trade deadline, knowing they could get his electric fastball to play up, but the opportunity to add Zack Greinke to their already-dominant staff was too great to pass up. Now with the chance to add Wheeler in free agency, Houston never stood a chance, having just entered the fray when Philadelphia's desperation forced the 29-year-old's hand.
Wheeler's path to living up to the $118 million deal the Phillies gave him is a tough one, as they're banking on potential, rather than results. His last two seasons were admirable, but that $23.6 million AAV is far higher than most would pay for a 3.96 ERA. Yet, compared to the Phillies' other rotation options, he's actually an improvement.
Zack Wheeler posted a 3.65 ERA the last two seasons and made 60 starts.
— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) December 4, 2019
For reference, that's more starts AND a lower ERA than any Phillies starter the last two seasons except for Aaron Nola
Houston, however, has such cash at their disposal. With the looming loss of Cole, the Astros had a hole in their rotation the size of the indent left when the Minute Maid Park staff removed Tal's Hill.
Suddenly, the Astros are left scrambling for other options, and Wheeler is left wealthy and elsewhere, without their instruction.