Chris Sale's Tommy John Surgery Only Made it Clearer the White Sox Won the Trade

Luckily, the trade evalutation doesn't cease after a player's initial contract with a team expires.

The Boston Red Sox chose to extend their time with Chris Sale after his first two inexpensive, team-controlled seasons in Beantown, two years in which Sale was an ace until August, and a beleaguered without-steam liability when the games began to matter most.

Now, Sale's succumbed to the fate most evaluators always expected from him, undergoing Tommy John surgery in the near future. It's fair to reevaluate the initial deal that Boston made following the 2016 season and, well, everyone who was sent to Chicago is in a much better place.

Even back in 2017, the sports world wasn't so quick to stamp Boston's move for the volatile lefty a success.

Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech were a hefty price to pay for Sale's services, with Luis Alexander Basabe also thrown in.

If we were evaluating the trade after 2018, the Red Sox would've safely come out on top -- Sale's Sox had just won a World Series and 108 regular season games, though the October might've gone more smoothly with someone else in the rotation (five innings and three earned runs in the WS, don't let the last out fool you). Meanwhile, Moncada had yet to establish himself as a proper threat, and Kopech was rehabilitating his 100-mph arm from the very same surgery.

Saying, "Boston won the deal because they won the 2018 World Series" and ending the argument just isn't fair. They would've won with basically anyone in Sale's spot, come October. Nathan Eovaldi was far more relevant to the run. The randomness of the postseason can't allow us to judge every deal on "rings culture" -- perhaps the 2018 Sox were just that good, and could've won their ring and had two budding stars join the roster to solidify their future. Now? Nope.

Of course, then the Sox agreed to a costly extension with Sale one year ahead of time, and every metric of this evaluation began to change. Moncada's age-24 season was spectacular -- he hit .315 with 25 homers and a 4.8 WAR. Kopech rehabbed in full, and looked like a Rookie of the Year-ready gunslinger in 2020's shortened Spring Training. Even Basabe, the bonus baby, hit .250 at Double-A and is just 23.

Sale, meanwhile, went 6-11 with a 4.40 ERA, and missed the season's final two months with elbow issues. This time, he wasn't just figuratively absent when it mattered most -- his disappearance was literal.

A month ago, the Red Sox could've really used a young second baseman who's established himself on Helium Watch, as well as a fireballing kid starter to line up alongside Sale. Now, without the left-handed ace, Kopech's presence would have been even more essential. Wonder where they could've found two people like that?

That, my friends, is why you wait before you evaluate.