Here's How Yankees Should Adjust ALCS Pitching Plans After Game 4 Rainout
By Adam Weinrib
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred held true to his word, and with the threat of a 'Bomb Cyclone' bearing down on the Bronx (seriously), he called Game 4 of the ALCS early on Wednesday afternoon.
Despite the narratives being pushed by the likes of Bob Nightengale, there are advantages for both teams here. Sure, the Astros can now move Justin Verlander up to a Game 5 on the road, if they so desire, but the Yankees now have the necessary mental break to get their ducks in a row following their inability to crack a wild Gerrit Cole. Psychologically, they'll absolutely benefit from a clean break here.
But now what happens with their pitching staff? The potential of four games on four consecutive days means the bullpen will be taxed harder than ever. How does Aaron Boone conserve arms while still managing aggressively? We think we have an answer.
Simply put, Masahiro Tanaka should start Game 4 on full rest. You play one game at a time. He's been your best option all October long, and he needs to be out there with a chance to knot this series. Small decision, all things considered, but taking Tanaka out after six in Game 1 is now even stranger -- that was a minute shot to save the 'pen that went by the wayside.
Then, I'd turn to James Paxton at home for Game 5, regardless of the outcome of Game 4. Full rest, at home vs. on the road, and a shot at redemption after not finishing the third at Minute Maid. If he can't get out of the third again...well, that's a problem. That's a game you likely won't deserve to win, in that case. It's an example of a player letting you down, but not of poor preparation. Theoretically, he's likely to last longer than Luis Severino, and you can't blow a bullpen game so early in the sequence without an offday. Paxton nearly had an undefeated second half. Trust him.
Then, presuming you take one of those two, at the very least, Game 6 would be your bullpen game. Chad Green opens, goes three innings, JA Happ covers the middle, Luis Cessa gets promoted (maybe?!), and the back end guys finish the job. If the Yankees are up 3-2 and facing Gerrit Cole in this scenario, a bullpen game would be ideal. Try to seize the day, but don't go for broke, knowing you have an anything-can-happen game behind you.
Then, it's all hands on deck. Severino starts Game 7, but Tanaka's available out of the 'pen, because you had him pitch Game 4. If not for the rainout, there's no comfortable way to do that. Certainly a blessing in disguise. Two innings of Britton, two innings of Chapman...anything goes.
Will it be easy? By no means. Is it over? Come on. You know the answer to that.
If the Yankees can't beat Verlander or Cole once, they don't deserve to win the series. Those are the roadblocks. Four straight losses to them, and you proved you were not the better team. But through two opportunities, the Yanks have battled, and been one big hit away twice. Line up the arms like this, and I like their chances.
Also, there's, uh, an impactful bat the Yanks could maybe use who gets another day to heal.
Yeah, the guy they're undefeated with in the postseason. Something to consider.