Luis Severino Tommy John Surgery Has Destroyed Yankees' AL East Title Projections
By Brendan Balsamo
After a 2019 that saw the New York Yankees crippled with injuries, the ailments just keep stacking up. With James Paxton already out until May and Aaron Judge having sat out of all Spring Training games so far, the last thing the Yankees needed was another health setback, especially regarding a starting pitcher.
On Tuesday, unfortunately, it was announced that starter Luis Severino requires Tommy John Surgery and will miss all of 2020.
Not only is this devastating to Severino, who only threw for 20 innings in all of 2019, but to the entire team. All it takes is a quick glance at the latest team-by-team projections for the new season.
Luis Severino (ZiPS was already down to 120 innings in the sims) for the season drops Yankees Div%/Play%/WSWin% from 82%/98%/18% to 69%/93%/14%.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) February 25, 2020
Rays go from 15/72/5.6 to 25/73/6.7.
Red Sox go from 2.6/29/1.6 to 5.2/31/1.9
According to FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the Yankees chances to win the division dropped from 82% to 69%, their chances to make the playoffs dropped from 98% to 93%, and their chances to win the World Series dropped from 18% to 14%.
Even if these drops are an overreaction to one piece of news, there's no doubt that the loss of a guy like Severino hurts the Bronx Bombers.
Besides Gerrit Cole, every starter gets bumped up one spot in the rotation, putting Masahiro Tanaka in the No. 2 spot and J.A. Happ at No. 3. The fourth and fifth spots look to be a tossup among Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chad Bettis. General manager Brian Cashman said that they are even considering using an opener again in 2020 given that the strategy worked so well in 2019.
Brian Cashman said in his brief presser that Severino will be replaced by “in house competition,” just like Paxton. As long as he remains healthy, Jordan Montgomery will be in the rotation. Jonathan Loaisiga will be enticing but I think Mike King gets the nod for #5
— Dan Federico (@DanJFederico) February 25, 2020
Although FanGraphs' numbers could reflect an overly dramatic reaction to Severino's injury, the Yankees are clearly a worse spot now than they were when they woke up this morning.