Something's Clearly Terribly Wrong With Mike Foltynewicz

The Atlanta Braves have an unsuspected problem this season, and it has come in the form of last year's breakout star, starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz.

It's almost an understatement to say that Foltynewicz has been terrible so far this season. The right-hander entered Thursday's start with a 1-4 record, paired with an ugly 6.10 ERA and a whopping 13 home runs surrendered in just 38 innings of work. Compare that with his 13-10 record, 2.85 ERA, and 17 home runs allowed in 183 innings last year, and he has basically been a completely different pitcher this year.

Why has Foltynewicz been so bad this year after he was so spectacular just last season? The first thing that sticks out is the absurd amount of home runs he is surrendering. After the pair of early long balls he allowed against the Pirates, he's given up 15 homers, nearly surpassing the 17 he gave up across roughly 150 fewer in innings of work compared to last season. His home run/fly ball rate currently sits at a ridiculously bad 23.2%.

For reference, the league leader in home runs surrendered this season is David Hess, who has allowed 19 bombs across 55 innings, with Mike Leake trailing him having given up 18 across 81 innings pitched. Foltynewicz is already ranking within the top 10 of home runs allowed, and he's set to fly up the list after his outing on Thursday.

The worst aspect of Foltynewicz's performance this season is that he hasn't been a victim of bad luck or even a fluke stretch of poor outings. His egregious 6.68 FIP actually shows he has somehow been even worse than his numbers represent on the surface.

Foltynewicz actually allowed a career-high in hard-hit rate last season at 35%, and that number has ballooned this year to 45%. A lot of that has to do with his lack of command, resulting in a decreased strikeout rate and an increased walk rate. It seems like a good chunk of his breaking pitches end up sitting right in the center of the zone, as he's effectively serving up meatballs to batters. The right-hander also saw a huge dip in his BABIP last season at .251, while his career rate is .301.

It's highly plausible that last season's performance was an anomaly, but that doesn't necessarily mean he is a bad pitcher, he is simply regressing in a dramatic way right now considering the incredible luck he had last year. Still, it's more likely that last year was actually the outlier, considering the best year he has had prior to 2018 was back in 2016, when he recorded a 4.31 ERA.

Foltynewicz will likely return to somewhere near what he was prior to last season once he regains some command, but he better do it soon, or Atlanta will continue to play from behind when he is on the mound.